Sunday AM update: Despite several inches of sleet opposite Tennessee forcing a handful of AMC theaters in a Nashville area to close, it’s not adequate to delayed down tickets sales over this year’s MLK weekend. After a good estimated $12.2M Saturday (+100% over Friday), Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to a Jungle is approaching to come in many aloft than what we were awaiting with $34M in weekend 4. This will put a Dwayne Johnson-Kevin Hart-Jack Black-Karen Gillan journey comedy during $291M. Once this film clicks past $304.3M —Skyfall‘s domestic mark– it will be a highest-grossing live movement pretension for Sony outward of its Spider-Man franchise pics. The initial 3 Sam Raimi-directed Spideys, and a some-more new Marvel Spider-Man: Homecoming ($334.2M) are a Culver City lot’s four-highest grossing cinema of all time during a domestic B.O.
20th Century Fox/DreamWorks/Participant’s The Post from Steven Spielberg warranted an estimated $7.4M on Saturday, +25% over Friday putting a Washington Post-Pentagon Papers pic on march for a $22.4M four-day during 2,819 theaters and a using domestic cume of $26.7M. In a arise of a Tom Hanks-Meryl Streep play earning an A CinemaScore, Relish Mix notices a colourful amicable media review opposite Facebook, Twitter and Instragram with moviegoers “sharing, on exit, how good a performances are, as a amicable discuss did a pursuit in simply building recognition of this super-cast. For others, The Post is a timely comparison to today’s stream events including a ongoing discuss about feign news, an indeterminate President with a low capitulation rating and a truth of a First Amendment with copiousness of asocial gibberish about a state of Hollywood.”
Among a 3 far-reaching entries that aren’t expansions, Lionsgate/Studio Canal’s Liam Neeson movement pic The Commuter is doing a best after a $5.1M Saturday, +13% over Friday, for a new 4-day of $15.8M in 3rd place. Lionsgate and tracking services were awaiting these formula while a latter overshot on a expectations for Paddington 2 and Proud Mary. Lionsgate didn’t bombard out for an MG on this pretension and is usually covering PA. This is per their multiyear placement understanding with StudioCanal. The Commuter should do about a 2x mixed same to Neeson’s prior partnership with executive Jaume Collet-Serra, Run All Night, that would move a movie’s final domestic B.O. to about $30M. With LG covering an estimated $30M in PA, they’d keep approximately half of a box bureau ($15M). An movement thriller like this over-converts in a home party marketplace during about 70% of a B.O. reduction selling costs (around $17M). Pay TV and Broadcast should ring adult around around $11M and with roughly $43M-plus in melodramatic and subordinate revenue, LG should be in a black with The Commuter and that’s before they collect a placement fee. Reportedly StudioCanal kept domestic rights on a pretension in hopes that there would be an upside, many like Non-Stop. StudioCanal would not acquire income until LG collects a PA and placement fee.
We also hear that The Commuter is operative overseas: The pic warranted $1M in a initial dual days in Germany with 66M admissions. Friday admissions of 44M where above Last Jedi for a day as good as Neeson’s Unknown (40M) and 84% forward of Neeson’s Run All Night and 44% above A Walk Among a Tombstones. In a initial day, The Commuter opened No. 1 in Austria with 7.7M admissions. In a initial dual days in a Netherlands with $233K, The Commuter was also pacing during a tip of a box office. Neeson/Collet-Serra cinema beget good over 50% of their tellurian B.O. abroad with Run All Night reaping 63% of a $71.6M worldwide B.O. from unfamiliar and Non-Stop earning tighten to 59% of a $222.8M from abroad.
In regards to marketing, LG kicked off their discuss in Oct with an exhibitor screening during ShowEast and a two-minute trailer entrance opposite all Fox NFL Sunday games that delivered 100M impressions. Similar to what Fox did with a last Taken and Neeson, there was an innovative ESPN cross-platform partnership featuring NFL luminary Rob Gronkowski extrinsic into a theatre from The Commuter. LG strategically targeted moviegoers during their daily and holiday commutes with a tradition Neeson voice beam formation in the Waze mobile app that reached some-more than 50M impressions (see below). There was also a Commuter branded voice-controlled poser diversion app for Amazon Alexa and Google Home speakers, leveraging Neeson’s signature outspoken gravitas. Millions some-more impressions were reached over a holiday deteriorate given how a new Echo Dot and Google Home Mini devices were renouned gifts.
With a Saturday that minted $4.7M, +99% from Friday, Warner Bros.’ Paddington 2 is looking better, though still muted with a new four-day projection of $14.2M. I’m told that a low $20M start would have been primary for this sequel. Sunday is another day of matinees. Again, a pic’s biggest lament is that it skews utterly young; it’s not a extended multi-quad family pic in the Despicable Me or Pixar clarity of a word.
Sony/Screen Gems’ Proud Mary is still unhappy with a 4-day of $11.5M after a $4M Saturday that’s +21% over Friday. Screen Gems has fared improved with Taraji P. Henson before. Yes, there’s the Think Like a Man comedies, though a primary comp here would be 2014’s thriller No Good Deed which non-stop to No. 1 with $24.2M in a post Labor Day 2014 support and finished a run during $52.5M.
We’ll have some-more updates in a morning.
- Jumanji: Welcome to a Jungle(SONY), 3,849 theaters (+48) / $6.1M Fri (-43%)/$12.2M Sat/ 3-day: $27.5M (-26%)/4-day: $34M/Total:$291M/ Wk 4
- The Post (FOX/DW), 2,819 theaters (+2,783) / $5.9M Fri (+1090%) /$7.4M Sat/ 3-day:$18.7M(+1,001%)/4-day: $22.4M/Total: $26.7M/Wk 4
- The Commuter(LG), 2,892 theaters / $4.5M Fri/$5.1M/3-day: $13.4M /4-day: $15.8M/Wk 1
- The Greatest Showman (FOX), 2,938 theaters (-404) / $3M Fri (-27%) /$5.2M Sat/ 3-day:$12M (-12%)/4-day: $15M/Total: $97.8M/Wk 4
- Star Wars: The Last Jedi(DIS), 3,090 theaters (-1142)/ $2.7M Fri (-58%)/$5.1M Sat/ 3-day: $11.7M (-50%)/4-day: $14.7M/Total:$595M/ Wk 5
- Insidious: The Last Key(UNI), 3,150 theaters (+34)/ $3.4M (-73%) Fri/$5.25M Sat/ 3-day: $12.4M (-58%)/4-day: $14.5M/Total: $50.7M/ Wk 2
- Paddington 2(WB), 3,702 theaters / $2.6M Fri/$4.7M Sat/3-day: $10.45M /4-day: $14.2M/Wk 1
- Proud Mary(Sony), 2,125 theaters / $3.3M Fri/$4M Sat/ 3-day: $9.7M /4-day: $11.5M/Wk 1
9. Pitch Perfect 3 (UNI), 2,505 theaters (-953)/ $1.4M Fri (-56%)/$2.5M Sat/3-day: $5.5M(-46%)/4-day: $6.5M/Total: $95.5M/ Wk 4
10. Darkest Hour (FOC), 1,693 theaters (-40)/ $1.2M Fri (-32%) /$1.8M Sat/3-day: $4.5M(-25%)/4-day:$5.7M Total: $37M/ Wk 8
Phantom Thread (FOC), 62 theaters (+56) / $343K Fri (+408%)/$370k Sat/3-day: $993K (+313%)/PTA: $16K/4-day: $1.2M/Total: $2.3M/Wk 3
Saturday AM writethru of 3rd update: While Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to a Jungle is looking improved than it did yesterday, jumping behind adult to a $30M-plus four-day weekend, dual of this weekend’s far-reaching entries, Warner Bros.’ Paddington 2 and Screen Gems’ Proud Mary are entrance in next where they should with respectively $12.6M in 7th and $10.9M in 8th. Hopefully Paddington 2 sees a boost from matinees generally given a fact that word is clever among those who saw it with an A CinemaScore. That’s a same class a initial film earned. Fifty-seven percent of all females and 45% underneath 25 gave Paddington 2 an A+.
Nonetheless a fact that some releases are entrance in approach underneath their tracking is spelling for a potentially reduce MLK four-day weekend during a B.O. around $183M, that is 2% down from final year’s four-day holiday period.
Steven Spielberg’s The Post is increased by good word of mouth, an A CinemaScore, glorious reviews and awards deteriorate buzz, even if it’s not winning a lot of trophies. If you’re anti-Trump, or a pacifist from a ’60s, a film usually means that some-more to you. The 20th Century Fox/DreamWorks/Participant prolongation came in second on Friday by a hair with $5.9M to Jumanji‘s $6.1M with a second place 4th weekend of $20.5M. Disney take note: Fox kicks donkey when it comes to doing adult-oriented product, and many design this $50M net budgeted pic to be around for utterly a while. This is Fox’s third post-holiday win in new years after Hidden Figures and The Revenant. Also by Monday, Fox’s The Greatest Showman will be reduction than $4M from $100M stateside; a studio’s second strike after Murder on a Orient Express since November.
The Post drew 57% females with 54% over a age of 50 and 92% over 25. Forty-four percent came for Meryl Streep while 41% bought tickets to watch Tom Hanks per CinemaScore.
Lionsgate is usually on a offshoot for PA for StudioCanal’s Liam Neeson movement pic The Commuter which is entrance in 3rd with $14.9M over four-days. Sources brace those costs to be around $30M to open this film on 2,892 theaters. One insider argues that if The Commuter gets to $20M, a pic will be essential for Lionsgate. Other executives in a attention can’t figure out a math on that one: Plain and simple, Lionsgate is in a hole for an estimated $30M. Still, we can’t censure them for minimizing their losses. This is Neeson’s fourth underline with Spanish executive Jaume Collet-Serra. These pics, like Nicolas Cage movement films, are built for unfamiliar audiences on $50m budgets. The 2014 airline steal recover Non-Stop was a many successful of a 4 with over $222M worldwide, though for stateside audiences these Taken take-offs are ennui, and for many guys, they’re usually value watchful on a manager for; once Porterhouse steak, Neeson pics have turn beef jerky. All of these Collet-Serra cinema acquire identical RT scores between 55% decaying to 60% fresh. On a 3-day basement with $12.7M, The Commuter is a few notches above a opening of a final Neeson/Collet-Serra collaboration, 2015’s Run All Night which debuted to $11M and done a small over double that in a finish stateside. The Commuter gets a B CinemaScore that is a lowest class for a Neeson/Collet-Serra pairing after Non-Stop and Run All Night‘s A-, and below Unknown‘s B+.
The Commuter pulled in 57% guys, 79% over 25. The kids underneath 18 during usually 8% enjoyed a film with an A-. Neeson fans incited out during 70%.
Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi is still clever in weekend 5 with $14M over four-days in 4th, and by finish of Monday will be $5.8M bashful of a $600M mark. Once that happens, a Rian Johnson-directed film will be one of 6 titles to have crossed a 6 century mark. A year ago, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story made some-more over MLK during $16.8M, though was also roughly $92M behind from where Last Jedi currently resides. Disney reason on to 4,232 theaters for 4 weekends true and now sheds approximately 1,100 this weekend.
A $12.6M opening isn’t going to cut it profit-wise for Paddington 2, especially after a $30M Warner Bros. spent to acquire it from a Weinstein Co. in further to any stateside PA spend (some trust it’s around $40M). I’m told a low $20M start with a plain mixed would have worked number-wise for this movie. However, notwithstanding any evident waste here, and for a consequence of gripping a pretension in their library, a Burbank, CA studio should be commended for rescuing a film (produced by their Harry Potter and Fantastic Beasts producer David Heyman) and gripping this classic kid’s film on lane to accommodate a U.S. date, while also enmity it from any contaminate in a post Harvey Weinstein era. Having finished a merger behind in November, Warner Bros. usually had 8 weeks to arrange selling materials, and to widespread a word. It’s a supplement to a family film that is geared toward a handholder crowd, and pics directed during that children’s demo are a plea to cranky over contra a five-quad seductiveness of Disney/Pixar titles or in WB’s case, a initial Lego Movie. To date, a U.S. is Paddington 2‘s second top opening domain after China’s $15.7M. A plain A CinemaScore and 100% Rotten Tomatoes measure are carefree signs during this early theatre of a weekend. It should be remarkable that WB was awaiting a $15M-$17M start on this film since tracking was some-more bullish in a $20M sphere. RelishMix sees a heat on amicable with fans not usually tender by a initial title, though they also conclude how true a cinema are to a source material. Paddington 2 is hindered by a mostly older, non-socially activated cast.
In a retro promo one-sheets, there was a clarity that Screen Gems’ Proud Mary could do some-more during a B.O. than a $10.9M four-day. Going into a weekend tracking saw it between $18M-$22M. Atomic Blonde ($30M prolongation cost, $18.3M opening, $51.7M domestic take) was even a comp. To Focus Features’ credit on that film, they ceaselessly showed footage of Charlize Theron kicking group adult and down a stairs, both during CinemaCon and Comic-Con. But in a box of a Proud Mary trailer, we unequivocally usually see her removing dressed. Couple this with the fact that we’ve seen versions of John Cassavettes’ Gloria before (Funny, Sony done a $30M reconstitute of that film starring Sharon Stone that bit a dirt with a $4.1M domestic take scarcely 20 years ago. Old ideas die hard.). Sony singular critics’ screenings to Proud Mary, which is never a good sign, and Proud Mary ended adult with a unhappy 27% RT measure with reviews labeling it a paint-by-numbers film. While Sony is famous to severely blink tracking, in this box they knew a film wasn’t going to cocktail over $20M. Universal would have famous accurately how to make this Taraji P. Henson film work. Those who indeed spent income on Proud Mary don’t hatred her terribly with a B+. We hear that Proud Mary cost $30M, not a reported $14M floating around in a press. For a notation on Friday we saw Proud Mary with an $18M 4-day projection. That would have been an OK start for a pic that cost $30M. At that level Proud Mary could make her approach to $50M. That’s not a box now. Females showed adult during 68% for Proud Mary, 89% over 25. The over 50 throng during 32% and those aged 18-24 during 10% gave a womanlike movement pic a best grades with an A-. Henson fans repped 66% of a assembly and gave a film a B+.
But still with these blase formula for Paddington 2, Proud Mary and The Commuter, these budgets to B.O. are significantly improved than a blood bathes that ensued final MLK with pricey pics Live by Night, Patriots Day, and Monster Trucks all DOA.
Great binds for awards deteriorate contenders Darkest Hour from Focus Features/Working Title, that will shortly turn executive Joe Wright’s third-highest grossing pretension surpassing Pride and Prejudice‘s $38.4M, as good as STXfilms/eOne/Mark Gordon Company’s Molly’s Game with $21.7M by Monday. And let’s not forget about Golden Globe best ancillary singer winner I, Tonya which jumped 34% in a enlargement of 275 theaters with a using cume of $11.7M.
For a MLK weekend of Jan. 12-15, 2018, attention estimates:
- Jumanji: Welcome to a Jungle(SONY), 3,849 theaters (+48) / $6.1M Fri (-43%)/3-day: $24.4M (-33%)/4-day: $30.9M/Total:$286.9M/ Wk 4
- The Post (FOX/DW), 2,819 theaters (+2,783) / $5.9M Fri (+1090%) /3-day:$17.2M(+912%)/4-day: $20.5M/Total: $25M/Wk 4
- The Commuter(LG), 2,892 theaters / $4.5M Fri/3-day: $12.7M /4-day: $14.9M/Wk 1
- Star Wars: The Last Jedi(DIS), 3,090 theaters (-1142)/ $2.7M Fri (-58%)/3-day: $10.96M (-54%)/4-day: $14M/Total:$594.2M/ Wk 5
- The Greatest Showman (FOX), 2,938 theaters (-404) / $3M Fri (-27%) / 3-day:$11.25M (-18%)/4-day: $13.7M/Total: $96.45M/Wk 4
- Insidious: The Last Key(UNI), 3,150 theaters (+34)/ $3.4M (-73%) Fri/3-day: $11.4M (-61%)/4-day: $13.2M/Total: $52.9M/ Wk 2
- Paddington 2(WB), 3,702 theaters / $2.6M Fri/3-day: $10.8M /4-day: $12.6M/Wk 1
- Proud Mary(Sony), 2,125 theaters / $3.3M Fri/3-day: $9.8M /4-day: $10.9M/Wk 1
9. Pitch Perfect 3 (UNI), 2,505 theaters (-953)/ $1.4M Fri (-56%)/3-day: $4.9M(-52%)/4-day: $5.9M/Total: $96.3M/ Wk 4
10. Molly’s Game (STX) 1,708 theaters (+100)/$1.1M Fri (-52%)/3-day:$4.1M (-40%)/4-day: $5.1M/Total: $21.7M/ Wk 3
11. Darkest Hour (FOC), 1,693 theaters (-40)/ $1.2M Fri (-32%) /3-day: $4M(-33%)/4-day:$5M Total: $36.3M/ Wk 8
I, Tonya (NEON/30), 517 theaters (+275) / $955K Fri (+17%)/3-day: $3.2M (+34%)/4-day: $4M/Total: $11.7M/Wk 6
The Shape of Water (FSL), 723 theaters (-81) / $730K Fri (-14%) /3-day: $2.7M (-14%)/4-day: $3.3M/Total: $27M/Wk 7
Three Billboards… (FSL), 1,022 theaters (+712) / $635K Fri (+242%) /3-day: $2.3M (+226%)/4-day: $2.8M/Total: $29M/Wk 10
Phantom Thread (FOC), 62 theaters (+56) / $343K Fri (+408%)/3-day: $975K (+306%)/PTA: $15.6K/4-day: $1.1M/Total: $2.25M/Wk 3
2nd update, Friday midday: Estimates are in with Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to a Jungle showing a 4th weekend of $21M over three-days, -44% with a four-day that’s now during $27.5M. This will move a Dwayne Johnson-Kevin Hart film to $283.6M, that creates it Sony’s 6th grossing pic ever during a domestic box office, outpegging The Amazing Spider-Man ($262M). Jumanji‘s Friday is looking during $5.5M during 3,849 theaters.
Sony/Screen Gems’ also has genre movement pic Proud Mary which is battling awful reviews during 38% Rotten is looking to make $5M today, $15.2M over three-days and $18M over 4 during 2,125, that is somewhat above a $14M that a studio was creatively spotting.
However, a best visitor belongs to DreamWorks/Participant Media/Fox’s The Post which is sketch an estimated $6.25M today, $19M FSS and $22.6M over FSSM. “This film is going to be around for a while during this level,” beamed a opposition studio executive. By Monday, including a money from Post‘s singular run, a Steven Spielberg film will count $27.1M in U.S./Canada sheet sales. Fox’s The Greatest Showman also display good sustainability with $3.2m today, 3 day of $11.2m and a 4-day of $13.6M holding a using cume to $96.4M.
Paddington 2 is looking soothing with a $3.3M Friday, $12.5M three-day and $17M 4-day, and Warner Bros. doesn’t have abroad to cover a censor on this last-minute $30M acquisition. Perhaps Saturday and Sunday matinees will tell a opposite story. The initial 2015 film non-stop to $25.5M over MLK
Lionsgate/StudioCanal’s The Commuter is roving toward $3.8M today, $11M over FSS and $13M over 4 days. On a three-day basis, that’s what Liam Neeson final 2015 movement title Run All Night opened to, however, it usually did a 2.4 multiple.
1st update, Friday AM: It’s firm to be a good MLK weekend during a box office.
Certainly not as high as a time when Warner Bros.’ American Sniper conquered a four-day holiday 4 years ago with a largest far-reaching opening ever during $107.2M, heading all titles to $250.7M in tickets sales. But this year’s stand of 4 far-reaching entries, 3 of that will do $20M-plus over four-days, should be an alleviation on final year when many of a new titles died (read Monsters Trucks, Patriots Day, Live by Night and Sleepless with $14M or less). Many in placement cruise this weekend to be a finish of a holiday-moviegoing duration as many kids conduct behind to propagandize on Tuesday with usually 2% K-12 off and 75% of all colleges behind in session.
Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to a Jungle which has been a heading ticketseller daily for a final 11 out of 12 days is approaching to lead a assign with $30M over four-days, holding a sum using cume in week 4 to usually over $286M. Yesterday a Jake Kasdan-directed pretension warranted an estimated $2.1M.
Out of a new stuff, it is approaching to be a tighten call between Warner Bros./StudioCanal’s Paddington 2 and Sony/Screen Gems’ Proud Mary which are approaching to respectively open to around $22M.
In a arise of a Harvey Weinstein passionate nuisance scandals, Weinstein Co. had to unload Paddington 2 to stay financially afloat. After an auction, WB walked divided with a family pretension for $30M before PA. The kid’s film carries a 100% Certified Fresh Rotten Tomatoes measure and has already racked adult an abroad sum of $125.2M. Paddington 2 will be in play during 3,702 theaters. Paddington 2 made $325K from showtimes starting during 5PM. As with any kid’s pic, they’re not Thursday night movies, rather Saturday matinees movies. Paddington 2‘s preview kick a initial chapter’s $175K, and is usually under Ferdinand‘s Thursday night money of $350K.
Proud Mary stars Taraji P. Henson has a strike lady for a Boston orderly crime family whose life is impacted when she meets a immature child during a unsuccessful hit. In a one-sheets and selling materials Sony has promoted Proud Mary in a stylish hippness of such Pam Grier cinema like Foxy Brown and Coffy. Henson had a outrageous strike final MLK with Fox’s Hidden Figures (wide enlargement opening $27.5M). That was a PG rated film and Proud Mary is rated R. Earlier this week, Sony saw Proud Mary tracking behind a Screen Gems crime drama When The Bough Breaks which non-stop to $14M in Sept. 2016 during a post Labor Day mezzanine (definite seductiveness for that pic was 39 vs. 33 for Proud Mary, initial choice 11 vs. 7). Sony reportedly didn’t screen Proud Mary widely for critics, that is never a good sign. Currently a pic has a thumbs adult from Variety and thumbs down from The Hollywood Reporter. The pic did not reason any early Thursday previews final night.
20th Century Fox’s enlargement of DreamWorks/Participant’s Steven Spielberg drama The Post is looking to ring adult $18M, presumably $20M over four-days in a enlargement from 36 sites to 2,819. Fox has executed this form of holiday height over a final dual years to good success with The Revenant and Hidden Figures where by they go disdainful over a holidays, emanate hum and plain museum averages, afterwards bust it far-reaching to large results. Aside from any awards deteriorate momentum, audiences are irritated by a fact that this is a Spielberg movie, and it’s a Tom Hanks-Meryl Streep drama, so that will keep it afloat in further to a good buzz. The Post, which follows a Washington Post’s competition opposite the New York Times in covering a Pentagon Papers during a Vietnam War, carries an 87% approved uninformed Rotten Tomatoes score. The play is off to a good start creation $775K at 2,325 locations final night off showtimes starting during 7PM. That series is above Spielberg’s prior cold fight drama Bridge of Spies ($500k) and final MLK’s Patriot Days ($560K).
Lionsgate is releasing a Liam Neeson-with-a-gun movie, The Commuter which is approaching to move in between $15M-$16M during 2,892 theaters. It’s a PA understanding so Lionsgate is usually on a offshoot for that spend on this StudioCanal production. Critics have motionless they’ve seen adequate of Neeson’s movement favourite schtick with a 53% Rotten Tomatoes. Last night The Commuter punched $700K in preview tickets during 2,000 locations.